Category Archives: Market data

Midtown Atlanta Infrastructure Improvements Will Pave the Way for a Housing Rebound

Posted on February 3, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Midtown is hopping these days, and the excitement isn’t limited to the buzz over the myriad of new restaurants which have popped up over the past few months.   Over the next several years, planned infrastructure improvements promise to dramatically enhance the livability of one of Atlanta’s most dynamic neighborhoods. 

The Midtown Alliance, the organization guiding Midtown’s renaissance since the 1970’s, is spearheading a number of new projects, outlined in the link below: 

http://www.midtownalliance.org/Streetscape%20Update.pdf  

One example is the $4.1 million Juniper Street Streetscape project, slated to begin construction in early 2012.  Local planning, architecture, and landscape architecture firm Tunnell-Spangler-Walsh  was retained to design the scheme.  According to details on the firm’s website  “the plan…includes transit improvements, traffic calming, and traffic flow changes that will transform the street from one that repels and divides to one that attracts and connects.”

 (http://www.tunspan.com/cutsheets/urban_streetscapes/Juniper_Street.pdf )

Physical enhancements in connectivity improve resident quality of life, assist in local business attraction and retention, facilitate job creation, and ultimately, drive housing demand.

As a real estate professional, this is great information to share with prospective homebuyers, as investments in the future help us all to focus on the long-term vision, as opposed to short-term economic challenges. 

On another note, yesterday’s Atlanta Real Estate Summit, sponsored by the Atlanta Business Chronicle, The Atlanta Board of Realtors, and RealValuator,  covered lots of territory and at times encouraged and expressed divergent opinions about the state of the national and local housing market.   One thing no one disputed, however, was the continued decrease of in-town new construction housing inventory.  Real estate is not only local, but hyper-local.    

As real estate professionals, it’s our job to stay informed about the conditions in each of the sub-markets in which we operate.  In doing so, we facilitate an informed and confident decision making process for our customers and clients.

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Posted in Atlanta Board of REALTORS, Market data, Market Intelligence, Midtown Alliance, Midtown Atlanta, Uncategorized, Urban Living Atlanta

Block Talk: Year-Over-Year Changes in Atlanta Distressed Sales

Posted on August 26, 2011 by | Leave a comment

By Judy Price

For this week’s column, I pulled numbers from our Universal Database to see how the Atlanta market is performing in distressed sales (as a percentage of overall sales numbers) year-over-year for 2011 vs. 2010.

  

The table above summarizes year-over-year changes (to date) in the amount of sales in FMLS that were foreclosure, lender-owned, corporate or short sale. The only category to see improvement is single-family new construction homes. While the supply of distressed inventory remaining in this category is at 8 months, as discussed in my April 22nd column, the amount of inventory is continuing to decline which is resulting in the year-over-year improvement in this distressed number.

As to the other categories, a continued increase in distressed sales can result in additional downward price pressure to a market bouncing along the bottom. However, the low months of remaining supply of resale distressed inventory is positive and provides some hope that we are working through some of the distress. What remains to be seen is how much shadow foreclosure inventory Atlanta has coming as the banks continue to work out the process.

A quick reminder on my methodology. For the single-family home data, I pull numbers from a 6-county area of Cherokee, Cobb, Fulton, Forsyth, DeKalb and Gwinnett. For Condos/Townhouses, I use a 4-county area of DeKalb, Cobb, Fulton and Gwinnett. Respectively, over 80% of sales occur in these counties.

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Posted in Bank Owned, Block Talk, Distressed Sales in Atlanta, Foreclosure, Housing stats in Atlanta, Market data

Block Talk: Premium for Condos in Atlanta’s Inner Core

Posted on July 15, 2011 by | 1 Comment

July 15, 2011

By: Judy Price

We often talk about the gap between the price of new construction and resale homes, but is there a gap between prices of properties located in different areas of the city? To make such a determination, I divided Atlanta locations with the majority of condominium product in two: the inner core and outer core. For the purposes of this study, the Inner Core is located on or in immediate proximity to Peachtree Street. My research did show a gap in condo pricing; today I will share with you the price differential for condo sales occurring in the inner versus the outer core of Atlanta.

As I dug deeper into my research, I noticed a large amount of active two bedroom (2BR) inventory. Years ago, buyers demanded 1BR units. But these buyers sought to move-up, causing the demand to switch to larger units with upgraded finishes. Developers responded, but then the real estate market slowed down to where we find ourselves currently. The result? A large supply of 2BR new and resale condo inventory is available across Atlanta. As prices have adjusted down since 2007, the inner core has become more affordable than it has been for years, and a large amount of this excess 2BR inventory is located in the most desirable areas. To narrow my focus on pricing trends, I decided to analyze 2BR condo inventory.

Inner Core vs. Outer Core (2 Bedroom) Sales since January 1, 2011

Inner Core

  • 51 total solds. New at $242 per sq. ft. and Resale at $188 PSF.
  • Data shows a positive sign that distressed inventory is being absorbed.

Outer Core

  • 23 total solds. New at $171 per sq. ft. and Resale at $115 PSF.
  • Distressed inventory still playing a prominent role in the fringe neighborhoods.

(Zips: 30308, 30309, 30312, 30318)

Inner core new construction condos are achieving a 29% premium over the outer core and inner core resale condos are achieving an even higher premium, at 39%. Inner Core resales are also selling at a higher price per square foot than new condos in the outer core.

Now, more than ever, it is important to understand each market and how to position inventory to stay competitive. With the large amount of inventory available, I will continue to monitor these markets as more downward pressure may be placed on price.

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Posted in Block Talk, Housing stats in Atlanta, Market data

Posted on June 8, 2011 by | Leave a comment

The Wall Street Journal published an article today discussing how the long term case for home ownership is looking good.  Below is an excerpt from the article. 

Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to 1990s levels in some battered regions. 

Despite all the gloom, however, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody’s Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer’s market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.

Such conditions might not last long. Moody’s Analytics predicts that the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013, and that prices will begin to edge upward then. Home building is at a virtual standstill, so the supply overhang isn’t likely to get much worse. Meanwhile, demographic indicators such as “household formation”—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and promise to take a bite out of the glut in coming years. 

 To read more click on – Wall Street Journal – Is It Time to Buy a Home?

 

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Posted in Atlanta Real Estate, Home ownership, Market data

Block Talk: Pre-Foreclosures

Posted on May 6, 2011 by | 1 Comment

By Judy Price

Two weeks ago, I analyzed pending sales, a lending indicator of future closings. This week, I’m highlighting another way that NRTDA looks for future trends, this time in the filings of pre-foreclosures. But before we look at the data, let’s review the definition of a pre-foreclosure first.

A pre-foreclosure is the legal event and notification of a present default. In Georgia, for a foreclosure to move forward, it must be advertised for four weeks before the bank can foreclose. Why do we look at this metric? Well, while not all pre-foreclosures actually turn into foreclosures (often the borrower works something out with the bank), by tracking movement up or down, we can look for signs of improvement or further distress in the foreclosure market.

A review of pre-foreclosure filings over the past 12 months uncovered:

Detached Single Family Homes (Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)*

  • While there was a slight uptick Feb 2011, pre-foreclosure notices have been on the decline since Nov 2010.
  • For new construction, there were 73 notices in February and 72 in March.
  • For resale, there were 2,076 notices in February and 1,734 in March.

 Attached Condos/Townhomes (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett)*

  • Same as detached, there was a slight uptick in Feb 2011. That one month aside, pre-foreclosure notices have been declining since Dec 2010.
  • For new construction, there were 25 notices in February and 19 in March.
  • For resale, there were 355 notices in February and 223 in March.

I’ve performed a number of market studies over the past 12 months and have seen figures quite high for pre-foreclosures, leading to long discussions about market realities. But today I’m feeling like this glass is half-full. The declining level of notices is a positive sign. Even if this means we start to see an up-tick in short-sales, at least this says that the banks are trying a different route to work through distressed homes.

*Big thanks to RealValuator for providing us with such a valuable tool that we can use to help our clients.

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Posted in Atlanta Real Estate, Block Talk, Condo, Foreclosure, Housing stats in Atlanta, Market data, Trends

NRTDA’s New Weekly Column – “Block Talk”

Posted on April 15, 2011 by | Leave a comment

By Judy Price

My experience in the real estate industry spans the last decade: a decade of highs and lows for all those involved. As NRTDA’s market intelligence expert, I’m able to use my experience to help a wide variety of stakeholders looking to succeed in this business. From the homebuilder who broke into the Atlanta market, to the investor buying pools of assets, I’m able to blend all of our in-house professional expertise with comprehensive statistics, demographics, trends and analytical tools to provide a real take on the market.

I’ve started a weekly column called “Block Talk” to turn this market and industry data into uncommon insights and advantages – and put it all towards giving you competitive information.  I invite you to follow along each Friday.

Today is a bonus day; two “Block Talks” are already posted for your reading pleasure….

Judy

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Posted in Atlanta Real Estate, Block Talk, Market data, Trends

Roger Tutterow’s insight on the every-changing economic, political and business climate

Posted on October 29, 2010 by | Leave a comment

By: Brad Horner

Thanks again to all who attended Wednesday’s Developer Forum featuring Roger Tutterow, professor of economics at Mercer University’s Stetson School of Business & Economics.  He, as always, provided such interesting insight on the ever-changing economic, political and business climate.

Many attendees requested copies of Roger’s presentation, which you can download here.  Included are the very telling graphs about consumer sentiment, economic indicators, NAR Housing Market Index, equity markets, Federal budget, the upcoming elections and so, so much more.

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Posted in Housing stats in Atlanta, Interest Rates, Market data

What’s ‘hot” in Atlanta’s condo and single family markets!

Posted on October 13, 2010 by | Leave a comment

We have collected and analyzed mid-year  Atlanta 2010 residential real estate data, and it has become very clear what is ‘hot’ in today’s condo and single-family markets. Below is a sampling of the data, which is from Smart Numbers through mid-year 2010 (unless otherwise noted).

NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDO MARKET

  • 80% of closings in the overall market were priced under $300,000; closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • 464 closed units through mid-year 2010, which is down 22% from the mid-year 2009 figure of 597.
  • Smart Numbers reported 464 closings through mid-year 2010.  FMLS listed 131 closings for Q3 alone.
  • The 2010 mid-year average sales price was $272,264, which is down 5.7% from the mid-year 2009 average of $288,934.  The 3Q10 average closed price in FMLS was $252,120.
  • According to the Mid-Year 2010 Haddow report, the number of unsold units reached its lowest level since year-end 2003. With little to no new construction activity bringing new condominiums to the market, this number will continue to decline.
  • Half of the top 10 selling sites are marketed by Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors, more than any other company.
  • Nearly 60% of all new construction condo sales activity took place in the Buckhead and Midtown sub-markets.

NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDO SUB-MARKETS

Buckhead

  • The market had a slightly higher average sales price ($464,468), which could be attributed to absorption of higher-priced homes at 10 Terminus Place, as well as closings at Sovereign and St. Regis.  The 3Q10 average in FMLS is $509,384.
  • 49% of closings were priced under $300,000; 86% of the market is priced under $550,000.  Closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • 10 Terminus Place accounts for almost 40% of activity in the sub-market (10 Terminus Place and Gallery Residences, combined, account for 60% of the Buckhead market).  Closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • There has been slow absorption in the $1M+ price range; 2 of the 3 closings at St. Regis were pre-sale contracts (the 3rd was written in December 2009 and closed in January 2010), and there were 2 closings at Sovereign.
  • Buckhead typically offers aggressive pricing and developer incentives.

Midtown

  • Midtown has nearly double the volume of Buckhead (172 homes closed through mid-year and there were 28 closings listed in FMLS in 3Q10).
  • The market has lower price points than Buckhead (77% of closings were priced under $300,000, compared to 50% in Buckhead); closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • Viewpoint lead the market, followed by Twelve Centennial (which is technically a Downtown property), 1010 Midtown and White Provision.

Downtown

  • Downtown had much lower price points than other sub-markets (97% of the market is priced under $300,000 and 74% is priced under $200,000). Closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • Castleberry Point lead the market, followed by Central City, Oakland Park and Stacks Lofts.

Vinings

  • Average price points were in line with other sub-markets (88% of the market is priced under $300,000); closing analysis from FMLS continues this trend through 3Q10.
  • Aberdeen recently began closings (2 homes closed in 2010 at $1.9M and $2.0M).

RESALE

  • There were 480 resale condominium closings in all metro-Atlanta during 3Q10, according to FMLS.
  • Buckhead: 65 closed, average sales price of $211,573, accounted for 14% market share
  • Midtown: 114 closed, average sales price of $132,670, accounted for 24% of market share
  • Downtown: 41 closed, average sales price of $95,245, accounted for 9% of market share
  • All other markets account for 54% of total resale market in 3Q
  • There were aggressive pricing and incentives offered by new construction sites in Buckhead, Midtown and Downtown, which could be taking market share away from resale.

BUILDING PERMITS (data from DEC International)

  • As of 9/27/10 for the 27-county metro area, 3,358 single family building permits were pulled for the fist 10 months of this year, compared to 5,577 in the preceding 12 months.
  • The top builder was DR Horton with 303 permits (compared to 624 last year), followed by Ryland and Pulte.  To be in the top 20, a builder would need a minimum of 33 permits.
  • The average valuation for these permits was $157,123. Assuming builders undervalue or at least value their property at cost, we could assume the retail price of these homes will be under $250,000 on average. 74% of all new home sales in a 15-county area are under $350,000; 61% are under $275,000.
  • At this pace, the 2010 total permit number will likely be fewer than 6,000 (probably close to 5,500, which will be slightly more than the 2009 number of 4,800).

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Posted in Atlanta Real Estate, Condo, Market data, NRT Development Advisors, Real Estate

Don’t Let Market Data Deter Your Customers from A Great Homebuying Opportunity

Posted on August 25, 2010 by | Leave a comment

By: Collin Ellingson 

The data released this week from the National Realtors Association didn’t exactly paint a positive picture of the current market.  National sales for existing homes in July dropped to a 15 year low.  July sales fell by over 27 percent compared to June, and sales decreased 25 percent from July 2009.1

So, your prospects and customers come armed with this information when they enter your sales center, open house, or new listing.  What to do?

  • Listen – Your customer/client needs to know that you are a consultative ally in their home purchasing process.
  • Acknowledge – In order to establish trust and credibility, you must acknowledge your customer’s concerns and fears.
  • Question – Ask direct questions to uncover the true mental obstacles to a purchasing decision.
  • Present a Solution – Turn each objection into a positive opportunity.

 Sure, July sales fell, but that is partly due to the wealth of closing activity which occurred in June as a result of the homebuyer tax credit.  Summer seasonality is another factor.  So, one could argue that the drop in sales was expected.

In addition, most of the favorable “buyer’s market” conditions which existed in the spring are still in place now:

Historically low interest rates: 

  • Historically low interest rates:  As of 8/25, 4.5% on average for a 30-yr fixed, and 3.5% for a 5/1 ARM
  • Housing affordability is still at all-time highs
  • Sellers are willing to negotiate price and conessions
  • Desirable inventory = choice

Most of the new-home communities we represent at CBNRTDA possess readily available financing options, including FHA and conventional project approvals.  

Also, in contrast to much of the competition, many CBNRTDA communities have surpassed 30%, 50%, or even 70% sold-out status.  

Show your clients why and how your listing and/or community is bucking the market trend. 

Use this information to sell from a position of STRENGTH, STABILITY, and SECURITY, and you will often see buyer hesitancy disappear.

 1 “Atlanta Housing Market Suffers Big Setback”.  The Atlanta Journal and Constitution.  August 25, 2010.

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Posted in Atlanta Real Estate, Market data, Nationa Association of Realtors, NRT Development Advisors, Real Estate

Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors releases 2nd Quarter 2010, quarterly view of metro Atlanta’s real estate market!

Posted on July 13, 2010 by | 1 Comment

Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors recently released its Q2 2010 Development Advisor*, a quarterly view of metro-Atlanta’s real estate market (including absorption, current inventory, sales price, distressed sales, consumer sentiment and more).  Highlights about the 15-county metro area from the Q2 2010 report include:

  • SINGLE FAMILY:  Consumer demand has declined precipitously with the recent expiration of the Federal tax credit. May and June are typically the best months for pending home sales in anticipation of closing prior to school starting in August. In May, 2010, pending home sales dropped 46% from April, 2010, however June, 2010 was up by 6% over May volume. Although it is a positive sign to see an increase in pending home sales, this number is still down 15% over June, 2009. There is also a sense of caution among builders in buying vacant developed lots. Opportunities for resets can, however, be found with accurate analysis and due diligence for proper positioning within a niche market.
  • MULTI-FAMILY:  Preliminary numbers point to positive signs in the multi-family market as well. Pending home sales for both new and resale in June,2010 were up over 200% over June, 2009 and were also up 80% over May, 2010 volume. It is important to note that more than half of the June, pending home sales were of distressed homes (foreclosed, short-sale, lender-owned, and corporate owned). New construction home data are not complete because not every home is listed. However later in the 3rd quarter, deed-based transactions will provide a much more accurate picture of the multi-family new construction market.

To view the full Q2 2010 Development Advisor, click here.  Past reports can be downloaded here.

*Information for the quarterly review is complied largely from the company’s proprietary Universal Data Base, a system that pulls data for the entire metropolitan Atlanta market from both FMLS and GAMLS, deleting any duplication.  The report includes submarket profiles for Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton (North and South), Gwinnett, Hall, Henry, Newton, Paulding and Rockdale counties.  Multi-family home sub-market profiles are also included for Buckhead, Intown, Downtown and other urbanizing areas.

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Posted in Housing stats in Atlanta, Market data, NRT Development Advisors