Author Archives: Judy Price

Block Talk: Pre-Foreclosures

By Judy Price

Two weeks ago, I analyzed pending sales, a lending indicator of future closings. This week, I’m highlighting another way that NRTDA looks for future trends, this time in the filings of pre-foreclosures. But before we look at the data, let’s review the definition of a pre-foreclosure first.

A pre-foreclosure is the legal event and notification of a present default. In Georgia, for a foreclosure to move forward, it must be advertised for four weeks before the bank can foreclose. Why do we look at this metric? Well, while not all pre-foreclosures actually turn into foreclosures (often the borrower works something out with the bank), by tracking movement up or down, we can look for signs of improvement or further distress in the foreclosure market.

A review of pre-foreclosure filings over the past 12 months uncovered:

Detached Single Family Homes (Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)*

  • While there was a slight uptick Feb 2011, pre-foreclosure notices have been on the decline since Nov 2010.
  • For new construction, there were 73 notices in February and 72 in March.
  • For resale, there were 2,076 notices in February and 1,734 in March.

 Attached Condos/Townhomes (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett)*

  • Same as detached, there was a slight uptick in Feb 2011. That one month aside, pre-foreclosure notices have been declining since Dec 2010.
  • For new construction, there were 25 notices in February and 19 in March.
  • For resale, there were 355 notices in February and 223 in March.

I’ve performed a number of market studies over the past 12 months and have seen figures quite high for pre-foreclosures, leading to long discussions about market realities. But today I’m feeling like this glass is half-full. The declining level of notices is a positive sign. Even if this means we start to see an up-tick in short-sales, at least this says that the banks are trying a different route to work through distressed homes.

*Big thanks to RealValuator for providing us with such a valuable tool that we can use to help our clients.

Block Talk: How Friends, Fans & Followers (the “F-Factor”) Influence Purchasing Decisions

By Judy Price

I was introduced to the site trendwatching.com by recommendation of a colleague, which gave it credibility in my mind and increased my interest in reading it. So, too, can happen with many of our purchasing decisions as those around us play a role in what we consume. This month’s briefing on trendwatching.com gives a name to those influencers: “F-Factors” (Friends, Fans & Followers). 

Today let’s delve into some of the ways that this “F-Factor” Network can influence consumers to buy: 

  1. Discovery – friends, fans and followers are influencers and give credibility to a brand.
  2. Rated – Since everyone is so busy, and so many ads come at us every day, targeted and personalized recommendations will be more likely to get a consumer’s attention. There is a lot of this integration going on with Facebook right now.
  3. Feedback – trusted recommendations and testimonials are influential in how people will purchase.
  4. Together – a multitude of tools now allow users to share and coordinate purchases with others, even when not physically shopping together.
  5. Me – websites and apps that takes users’ social media content, accumulating it in one place, to provide the most relevant information in a short amount of time. 

What does this mean for real estate?

Research has shown that more than 80% of homebuyers search the internet first for a home. To reach future buyers, it is important to understand how real estate buyers are influenced. Friends, fans, followers, those in a closer circle have a strong influence over purchasing decisions. Buyers are looking for the home that they will find most exceptional and that will also be validated by their sphere of influence. Here are two ideas I have for you today about reaching the “F-Factor”: 

  • Online presence. Have you made it easy for buyers to share information about your community with their friends? Integrate your website with your social media campaign. Through the use of Facebook “Like”Buttons and Four Square “Check-Ins” interested buyers can go public, quickly letting friends know of their interest.
  • Resident referrals. Last night, I met a 2 year resident of one of our properties at an art event. He greatly enjoys the location and the value of his home and was more than willing to share the reasons with others. Find ways to let referrals speak through your residents to their “F-Factors”.

Understanding the F-Factor is about being exceptional so that consumers will find and choose you. What are you doing to be exceptional to influence the F-Factor?

Block Talk: Atlanta Q12011 Single-Family New and Resale Update

By Judy Price

This week I attended the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association’s Builder/Developer/Lender forum. This monthly roundtable event allows industry professionals an opportunity to share ideas and have an open dialogue about the real estate market. NRTDA’s very own Bob Romano was featured this week to talk about Q12011 trends. Here’s a recap of the findings:

Permits. 900+ permits pulled so far this year. The top 25 builders pulled 60% of the permits. Last year by this time, approximately 1900 permits were pulled. A glimmer of hope came up at the meeting: a lender in the group was proud to announce she was closing a construction loan this week.

Resale Single Family. Within a 6-county area* there has been a strong increase in pending resale inventory (pendings are a leading indicator to sales) the first three months of the year, just like in 2010. While this is expected because of seasonality, this year these pending sales come without the help of the tax credit. At the end of March, there were 3600 pendings in the 6-county area. The estimated months of supply is currently 9.3 months, which is down from 12 months in February. While the year got off to a slow start, velocity is increasing, just later than last. Check out the graph below:

New Homes. On the new construction single-family home side (6-county area), the data is showing a 33% increase in pending home sales from February to March. And as the inventory is being absorbed, the percentage of new construction distressed sales continue to decline year-over-year. Distressed sales were 23.8% of all sales in 2010 and so far in 2011, 17.8%.

 *Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton and Gwinnett

NRTDA’s New Weekly Column – “Block Talk”

By Judy Price

My experience in the real estate industry spans the last decade: a decade of highs and lows for all those involved. As NRTDA’s market intelligence expert, I’m able to use my experience to help a wide variety of stakeholders looking to succeed in this business. From the homebuilder who broke into the Atlanta market, to the investor buying pools of assets, I’m able to blend all of our in-house professional expertise with comprehensive statistics, demographics, trends and analytical tools to provide a real take on the market.

I’ve started a weekly column called “Block Talk” to turn this market and industry data into uncommon insights and advantages – and put it all towards giving you competitive information.  I invite you to follow along each Friday.

Today is a bonus day; two “Block Talks” are already posted for your reading pleasure….

Judy

Block Talk: My Take on Atlanta Home Prices

By: Judy Price

Atlanta Home Prices Continue to Drop,” was the headline that jumped out at me in yesterday’s email from the Atlanta Business Chronicle. The article referenced February, didn’t state what constituted “Metro Atlanta” or what type of residential product was surveyed, so today I’m doing my own research on local home prices.

Earlier this year, I discovered that a small number of counties made up a majority of the closings. While NRTDA formerly reported on a 15-county area, we are now looking to where the activity is occurring. For single-family (“detached”), my stats today are pulled from a 6-county area: Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton and Gwinnett. Last year, 82% of closings occurred in these 6 counties.

Based on an FMLS 6-county detached search, quarter over quarter, I found: 

 So, closings were up slightly from first quarter 2010 to 2011, but the average sales price was down 4.4%. By looking closer at the data, it is the increase in number of distressed sales and their price points that are the culprit. On the other hand, market sales of detached homes are showing a sign of price stability this quarter versus last. I will continue tracking this trend.

The ABC article does agree with me that it is the distressed segment that continues to pull pricing down. But we don’t read about that until the concluding paragraphs. My headline would have been “Atlanta home prices continue decline due to distressed sales.”

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Block Talk: But Can They or Will They Buy?

By: Judy Price

This week I read two positive articles online from CNN about the residential real estate market. As a student of the market, I thought it would be fitting to revisit some fundamentals this afternoon as I analyzed these articles:

Real Estate Fundamentals:

1) Cost to Buy vs. Rent; 2) Level of New Construction Starts and 3) Ability to Buy

Market Fundamentals:

1) Supply & Demand; 2) Unemployment and 3) Consumer Confidence

In Real Estate: It’s Time to Buy Again,” statistics on the shortage of new construction starts (which are well below closings) and a steep decline in prices are positive signs for those who can and want to buy to get off the fence. And in the complimentary article, 10 Best Cities for Home Buyers,” Atlanta came in as the #1 best city for having an average monthly rent much higher than the average mortgage payment and for double-digit declines in home prices the past few years.

Based off my calculations, we’ve hit 3 of the 6 fundamentals above. Unfortunately, buyers who want to take advantage of this market still have a low sense of confidence about the market and/or their own situations. Or truly, they might not be able to buy. Interest rates are still low, but without a down payment or good credit history, homeownership is still in the future.

The last sentence of the “10 Best Cities Article” asks “…When will those Atlanta renters recognize the clearance sale going on all around them?” Sorry Mr. Reporter, but I think you would benefit from a fundamentals refresher too. See above.

How to Avoid the Ten Biggest Home Buying Mistakes

By: Judy Price

Buying a home is likely to be one of the biggest purchases you’ll make in your lifetime. As you move forward with your search for the perfect home, keep some key points in mind to avoid any of the ten biggest home buying mistakes:

  1. Failing to set a budget. It is important to take the time to calculate how much you can afford by looking at your monthly expenses and talking with a qualified lender.  Getting pre-approved will save you time as you will know what you can afford and view only the homes that are in your price range.
  2. Waiting for the market to “bottom out.” No one can predict precisely when the market will “bottom out.”  Historically low home prices and interest rates make it a buyer’s market out there right now.  If you are financially and emotionally ready to be a homeowner, now is a great time to begin your search for the right home. By buying, you can start building equity, getting tax deductions and enjoying the many other benefits of home ownership.
  3. Falling in love at first sight. Even if you love the first home you see, you should compare at least three other homes to be sure that you’re getting the best home for the best price.  Taking the time to compare will help ensure that your chosen home is “the one” and you’ll be less likely to experience buyer’s remorse.
  4. Not checking out the neighborhood. The house may be perfect, but if it isn’t situated in a neighborhood you’ll enjoy, you will be unhappy with your choice.  Make sure you choose a neighborhood that suits your lifestyle.  It’s wise to visit the neighborhood a few different times, at different times of day in order to get a feel for the area and make sure it suits you.
  5. Making an offer without contingencies. Make sure you have a “back-up plan” in place in your contract. If the home has an irresolvable problem, does not appraise for the purchase price, or if your loan falls through, having contingencies on your contract gives you the ability to cancel the transaction.
  6. Glossing over the fine print. You can request copies of many of your closing documents in advance, and you should!  Then, you can have your trusted real estate attorney review the paperwork and discuss it with you so that there are no surprises at closing time.
  7. Forgoing a home inspection. Check that house out from top to bottom!  It is critical to hire a professional home inspector who will take the time to inspect the house from top to bottom, inside and out.  The inspector may find minor issues that you can request the seller fix before purchase.  If the inspector finds major problems, you will want to consider the correction costs and, if some cases, reconsider the purchase.
  8. Hiring the wrong agent. Identifying an agent who is knowledgeable, communicates clearly and understands your needs is essential to the home buying process.  Make sure that your agent is very familiar with your area of interest and the price range you’re looking for.
  9. Thinking short-term. You may adore the home now, but will you love it in five years?  It’s wise to think about the future and envision what you will want and need down the road.  Also, think about how the home might sell in the future – what is its likely re-sale value?
  10. Forgetting closing costs. Closing costs can run from 2 to 5 percent of the home’s purchase price.  To avoid an unpleasant surprise on closing day, do not forget to include these costs in your calculations for the purchase of your home.

Keeping these ten mistakes in mind during your search will help you to buy with confidence.

Buying a home with resale value

It might feel strange to be concerned about resale value on a home that you don’t even own yet, but it is an important component to take into consideration when searching for your next house.  More likely than not, you will eventually move from the home and, at that time, it will need it to be a home that you can sell rather easily.

The basic considerations for home resale value are location, prospective buyer motivation and home features.

  1. Location: While desirable locations do not remain that way forever, they do serve as a good model.  Ask yourself: Why are the sought-after neighborhoods in demand and how long have they been top choices?  Are there other areas in town that are increasing in desirability? Is the neighborhood attracting development or is it stagnant? How do the schools in the area rank?  Good local schools raise the value of the property.
  2. Prospective Buyer Motivation: Analyzing your prospective buyers and their wants and needs is always a wise idea.  Look through local real estate advertisements and identify the features that are highlighted on homes that are selling. Are the advertisements written to attract senior citizens or young professionals and families?  Taking the time to understand potential buyers and their motivations will help you better spot homes with high resale potential.
  3. Home Features: It’s all about the features!  If the prospective home has some outdated features, but they are easy fixes (such as old paint or older fixtures), those items should not be a huge concern.  If the home has outdated features that are difficult to change, such as dated tubs and showers, it may be of greater concern. Take a close look at the home and make note of the simple solutions and the costly ones, then decide how much you should invest.

Next, you should understand which home features traditionally add value. Multiple bathrooms are always a plus, spacious cabinets and closets are desirable and everyone enjoys natural light!  Other desirable features depend on your prospective buyer’s motivations.  For example, if you will most likely resell to senior citizens, you may want to consider a one-level home.  If you are going to be selling to families, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms will be very important.

While your first objective is to find the right home for you, taking resale value into consideration will provide you with added flexibility and funds down the road.

ULI Development of Excellence Award Winner – White Provision

By: Judy Price

Last week, ULI Atlanta held its 16th Annual Development of Excellence Award Dinner attended by 400 members of the Atlanta real estate community. Awards are presented for exceptional performance in real estate development. A hilarious montage by comedian Tripp Crosby introduced the crowd to the 7 project finalists. Also recognized was Don Childress and Mayor Shirley Franklin for their long-time support of the Atlanta real estate community.

One of the Development of Excellence Award winners was White Provision  , located at Howell Mill and 10th Street on the Westside. With CBNRTDA being responsible for the sales and marketing efforts at the White Provision condominiums, we are very excited for the team of White Provision Development Company and Jamestown Properties. In my opinion, they did a fantastic job marrying the historic brick structure of a 100 year-old former meat-packing plant with a modern, industrial-styled residential building. You can eat, drink, shop and live all within White Provision.

For a short video further describing this award-winning community, click here

 Congratulations!

The Atlanta BeltLine needs your support!

By: Judy Price

As a City of Atlanta resident, who also works in the City, I’ve been following the Atlanta BeltLine cause now for a number of years. In case you don’t know much about the BeltLine, here’s an overview:

The Atlanta BeltLine is a $2.8 billion redevelopment project that will provide the City of Atlanta with a new network of public parks, multi-use trails and transit along a historic 22-mile railroad corridor circling downtown and will connect 45 neighborhoods directly to each other. The BeltLine will help change the pattern of regional sprawl in the coming decades and lead to a vibrant and livable Atlanta with an enhanced quality of life.

Here’s how you can support the BeltLine this week:

The Atlanta Development Authority and Atlanta BeltLine, Inc. are applying for a federal grant that would provide funding to complete 7 miles of the Atlanta BeltLine Corridor and more than 8 miles of new streetscape improvements abutting the corridor. If it receives all of the requested funding in this application, the Atlanta BeltLine will have a minimum of 11 miles of completed multi-use trail in just three years! This would be huge for this project.

This is a highly competitive grant program, and our support can make a difference. Your signature on the petition will tell the federal government that Atlanta supports the BeltLine and its efforts to use federal funds to build the Atlanta BeltLine. The grant is due on Aug 23rd, so please sign today: http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/atlantabeltline/

For more information on the BeltLine, visit: www.BeltLine.org. You can even sign-up for a free guided tour. I highly recommend it!