By Judy Price
Two weeks ago, I analyzed pending sales, a lending indicator of future closings. This week, I’m highlighting another way that NRTDA looks for future trends, this time in the filings of pre-foreclosures. But before we look at the data, let’s review the definition of a pre-foreclosure first.
A pre-foreclosure is the legal event and notification of a present default. In Georgia, for a foreclosure to move forward, it must be advertised for four weeks before the bank can foreclose. Why do we look at this metric? Well, while not all pre-foreclosures actually turn into foreclosures (often the borrower works something out with the bank), by tracking movement up or down, we can look for signs of improvement or further distress in the foreclosure market.
A review of pre-foreclosure filings over the past 12 months uncovered:
Detached Single Family Homes (Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett)*
- While there was a slight uptick Feb 2011, pre-foreclosure notices have been on the decline since Nov 2010.
- For new construction, there were 73 notices in February and 72 in March.
- For resale, there were 2,076 notices in February and 1,734 in March.
Attached Condos/Townhomes (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, Gwinnett)*
- Same as detached, there was a slight uptick in Feb 2011. That one month aside, pre-foreclosure notices have been declining since Dec 2010.
- For new construction, there were 25 notices in February and 19 in March.
- For resale, there were 355 notices in February and 223 in March.
I’ve performed a number of market studies over the past 12 months and have seen figures quite high for pre-foreclosures, leading to long discussions about market realities. But today I’m feeling like this glass is half-full. The declining level of notices is a positive sign. Even if this means we start to see an up-tick in short-sales, at least this says that the banks are trying a different route to work through distressed homes.
*Big thanks to RealValuator for providing us with such a valuable tool that we can use to help our clients.



